Two years prior to the fateful board meeting, the analyst and the PM were in the same meeting foreshadowing the showdown yet to come. We both had the opportunity to be in that very same room. Let’s listen in. “I’m a believer and a zealot and I will tell you right now that I am here to influence you.” These were the words from the PM as they sat at the conference table, trying to shake off the early morning with coffee. Within 5 minutes they were both feeling like believers as well.
Were they drinking coffee or were they drinking grape Kool-Aid? His words were powerful and resonated with the sound of a corporate hero, someone who had been with the company many years, had fought many battles, and was promoted to his position on the basis of the trust he had gained from the corporate structure. “My job is to produce things of great value for the corporation.” For those of us languishing behind stacks of our paper on our desks we have heard the tales of the great ones, those in the field or the lab either landing the big contract or patenting the next invention that will earn the corporation it’s next billion dollars. And here, this morning standing before them was a legend – or so he said.
The charisma of such a hero – those who brave the depths of the commercial marketplace to take the fight to our enemies – gives us another glimpse of the excitement that is capitalism. Instead of being face to face with the empire builder in the form of someone creating and growing an organization as mentioned previously, we were now being addressed by the PM also known as a Product Manager for a corporate product line. They to are empire builders but typically they have a reason that transcends growth for the sake of the seats on an organizational chart – and they will tell you this fact. They transcend the organization because they bring value with a product – the holy grail of the organization in their minds.
Something of such value that everyone else should bow down before them, as they, guardians for the chalice, the Knights Templar by another name, The Zealot as was his nickname out side of work, enters the room. As the Zealot spoke he gave credit to those above him. “Our CEO is a visionary,” was a powerful sound bite. “The Chief has a profound vision of the future,” was another. It seemed to me, however, that those we label as visionary are the leaders who we believe are preaching closest to our own view of the world. We believe this particular PM indeed has a vision, however after a 50 minute sermon I’m not sure he knew that his vision is really about keeping investment dollars flowing into his program and not about winning a war in the corporate market place.
But this blog is not about a zealot trying to keep his program funded. If we had a nickel for every PM we’ve had to listen to ramble on about their product… rather, this essay is about truth. Maybe the PM is right; maybe he is wrong, the question is can we find out? This essay is about how analysis in an uncertain world can be used to shape decisions – and influence decisions the correct way. The promise of analysis has always been about removing bias, removing uncertainty, and delivering the right answer to a decision maker. What we are calling discovering the truth.
In reality our analysis is used to influence friends, bolster intuition, and defend decisions that were made for reasons other than what was revealed our analysis. Let’s get right down to it. Human beings are trained and equipped from preschool to make simple decisions. They can compare two things. Round pegs and square holes. Right choices and wrong choices. Good people, bad people. It’s easy to compare two things. It’s not easy to compare multiple and complex competing alternatives in an uncertain environment. It is easy to change analytic methods as we continually move between mathematical models. It’s not easy to use the right model or even use it correctly in a such a way as to produce analysis that a decision maker can use in a credible manner that can width stand significant scrutiny.
It’s easier to win friends with political rhetoric then it is to change minds with logical arguments, even with the backing of sound analysis. So friends we tell you today that we are also here to influence you – and run the risk of being exposed for our very own brand of zealotry – perhaps we are indeed worshiping at our own holy grail. But, we have a vision related to the future of analysis and its about discovering the truth. It’s about how we might go about producing useful analysis – analysis that helps a decision maker reach a conclusion for the right reason, not for the wrong reason. It’s about helping the decision maker reach the right conclusion by making them a part of the analysis – not a recipient of the analysis product. It’s about helping the human understand complex alternatives in order to make an informed decision. It’s about discovering the real truth, not the truth handed down to us by some dime store philosopher preaching his form of the Gospel with legions of Cool-aide drinking disciples handing out samples.
Good analysis will discover the truth and make it available to not only the initiated but the casual observer as well. It will be presented in clear and intuitive terms – not cloaked in rhetoric and dressed up by the sales man telling you he knows the truth and has done your thinking for you.
The next principal is simple. The Zealot always believes they must do our thinking for us – “You can’t handle the truth” as Jack Nicholson exclaimed at the end of the movie, A Few Good Men. But you can handle the truth – when the truth is revealed it doesn’t require lipstick to make it look good. When revealed the truth is self evident –it is our job as analysts to strip away the hype and find what truly matters. What are the meaningful measures that must be taken into consideration. Not what are the good things that people want to hear, taste, and smell. Tell them the truth, they can handle it, and they will appreciate it.
Mooch,
ReplyDeleteIndeed we fall for zealots often precisely because, "It’s not easy to compare multiple and complex competing alternatives in an uncertain environment." Zealots sway our gut (see Wash Post page G2 (as in G2!) "On Leadership". I loved Meigs' wise, but not easy, counsel - it is not easy. Then Portney, "go with your gut." Then Daly, "only then can he or she [the decider] understand the full implications of the path ultimately chosen" (I thought that even historians argue about that!). Grier was okay too, "leaders reserve the right to call such advice into question" (you think?). Allen sounded like an Army War College prof. G2 – this is the first I noticed the page number, though I read the column whenever it is in the post. Do you think the Post is that smart/hip?
I’ll close with the most pertinent observation on the topic of zealots and truth in analysis in the post this weekend - “I’ll be in the shower trying to wash my soul.” Funny, because I am sure we have all used, “an enhanced assessment methodology” at one point or another.
Mooch here. I'm at the airport heading to DC...just wanted to check out the full public accessibility to our blog. Looks like it's pretty public. Orge and Merf...I'm in the building at 8 am...I'll give you both a call after my meeting...should be about 9 am.
ReplyDeleteThis is really a discussion of "revealed truth" and "discovered truth." Revealed truth is handed to us from a higher authority. Discovered truth we obtain through application of intellect and few rules of thumb that humanity has developed since the dark ages.
ReplyDeleteDon't be confused...just because the PM wears a modern suit and tie, it doesn't mean they actually have a modern outlook. There are lots of folks out there with a chain mail hauberk clinking away under the Armani...these modern-day crusaders don't need your analysis (unless it supports what they already "know")--they've long-since been inculcated in the "true learning" and nothing you say will change what they believe (they may tell you you haven't changed their mind, but usually it's their heart you haven't swayed...nor will you).
The zealot "believes," the analyst "thinks."
These people are easy to recognize. Whenever the PM's speech starts to sound like Graham Chapman's King Arthur in Monty Python's Holy Grail--"The Lady of the Lake, her arm clad in shimmering white Samite, held aloft the sword Excalibur, indicating that I, Arthur, was to be Program Manager..."--then you know you're in the presence of a zealot.
What to do about the zealot is a tougher nut to crack. I'm jaded, but I suspect that a true zealot will never be converted. The only option may be to find someone at a higher level to expose the zealot to.
One of the most powerful habits analysts have is declaring our assumptions at the beginning of a presentation. It's not just the audience we're educating; we are forced to look our prejudgements in the eye and ask if they are supportable. We all have predispositions; we make better decisions when we acknowledge them.
"Never try to teach a pig to sing. It only wastes your time and irritates the pig."
Since I had the opportunity to listen to the Zealot and work with his following on this one, TinTin's point about revealed truth is particularly poinant. His followers labored for years under the truth as revealed to them not just by the PM but by the fact that Billons of dollars were poured into the program. When discovered truth finally turned on the light and revealed to them that the king had no cloths one of the followers was very sad. His comment to me was that he felt like he had just discovered his wife had been cheating on him for 6 years. The story becomes even sadder because I've heard reports that even after he saw the light, and completely understood news, several years later he still held out hope that something would save the program.
ReplyDelete