Showing posts with label analysis foundations. Show all posts
Showing posts with label analysis foundations. Show all posts

Thursday, January 8, 2015

Know your history ...

A friend who knows my leanings toward math and statistics -- and who understands my professional inclination to read, study, and apply them to military problems -- recently sent me a link to a wonderful article from The Economist, "They also served: How statisticians changed the war, and the war changed statistics."

Aside from the laudatory mention of George Box, whose assertion that "all models are wrong, but some are useful" has done more damage to the profession than any other single statement, this should be essential reading for the members of our smallish profession. Off the top of my head, I can think of at least two other works (other than the marvelous titles already described on this blog as "essential reading" and "books of interest") that should be part of our essential education as military analysts:

The Science of Bombing: Operational Research in RAF Bomber Command by Randall T. Wakelam. Much of our professional identity as a community comes from the mythology of operations (or Operational) Research and its application to the problem of civilizational survival in the Second World War. It seems a good idea to read the actual history of the people, techniques, politics, decisions, and decision makers involved in that history.
Thinking About America's Defense: An Analytical Memoir by Glenn A. Kent, David Ochmanek, Michael Spirtas, and Bruce R. Pirnie. Whether it's the mathematical techniques, the influence of political/historical context on problems of interest, or something more personal, this is an important work for military (especially Air Force) analysts.

There are more, of course. It's hard to tell what the next problem posed to a military analyst will be, so our educations must be necessarily broad. The study of mathematics, statistics, PPBE, doctrine, military history, international relations, leadership, management, theories of innovation, etc., are all important. In this case, though, the question is about the central and defining history of our communal story, our mythology.

What else should we read?

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Analytic Foundations

While this blog on Analytic Truth is a philosophical treatment of the subject of finding truth in analysis, a complementary blog has sprung up in which we will treat in much greater depth the foundations of good analysis, namely, the correct application of engineering and mathematical principles. The following is an excerpt from the new Blog.


The purpose of this site is for the analysts ... and friends to keep our analytical spears sharp. We are currently focused on learning Radars.

A small group of us have decided we’ll try to establish lunchtime seminars to learn/review/discuss RADAR and eventually other core competencies. Any/all of you are welcome to join us. Per our discussions today, we plan for our next seven sessions to cover the following topics:

RADAR Range Equation
Parameter Estimation
Waveform Design
Detection Theory
Clutter, Multipath
Key RADAR Components
Electronic Attack/Electronic Protection

TB will send out a few problems or tasks related to the weekly topic NLT the Monday prior to our session, and we will all try to get together on Thursday to share our experiences/challenges/epiphanies. After session 7 we will move onto different topics, intending to work our way through some set of “core knowledge” that our fearless leader would like for us to understand/master. If you don’t manage to complete the task/problems, don’t let that dissuade you from attending on Thursday. The interaction and discussion is most important. The Lincoln Lab lecture series and RADAR tutorial websites below and the Merrill Skolnik Introduction to RADAR Systems text are our core resources, but please share any other materials/links that you find useful.

This is a follow-up to TB’s “Let’s Learn RADAR” proposal: “I propose we go through the first lesson in this course on our own. Then we meet at 1500 next Friday and discuss, break into teams and spend an hour going through relevant problems. As we go through the course, let’s ask questions and create an atmosphere of dialogue .”

TB had asked BT to come up with some questions/problems we could work through in order to help set the first lesson’s material firmly in our minds. We’ll also use this session as a kick-off to discuss how we want to do this in the future. (Many of us have the Skolnik text on our desk, so maybe we work through that with the MIT lectures and materials. Again, anyone who wants to join us is invited.

You can participate in this new activity at http://analytical-foundation.herokuapp.com