Thursday, January 8, 2015

Know your history ...

A friend who knows my leanings toward math and statistics -- and who understands my professional inclination to read, study, and apply them to military problems -- recently sent me a link to a wonderful article from The Economist, "They also served: How statisticians changed the war, and the war changed statistics."

Aside from the laudatory mention of George Box, whose assertion that "all models are wrong, but some are useful" has done more damage to the profession than any other single statement, this should be essential reading for the members of our smallish profession. Off the top of my head, I can think of at least two other works (other than the marvelous titles already described on this blog as "essential reading" and "books of interest") that should be part of our essential education as military analysts:

The Science of Bombing: Operational Research in RAF Bomber Command by Randall T. Wakelam. Much of our professional identity as a community comes from the mythology of operations (or Operational) Research and its application to the problem of civilizational survival in the Second World War. It seems a good idea to read the actual history of the people, techniques, politics, decisions, and decision makers involved in that history.
Thinking About America's Defense: An Analytical Memoir by Glenn A. Kent, David Ochmanek, Michael Spirtas, and Bruce R. Pirnie. Whether it's the mathematical techniques, the influence of political/historical context on problems of interest, or something more personal, this is an important work for military (especially Air Force) analysts.

There are more, of course. It's hard to tell what the next problem posed to a military analyst will be, so our educations must be necessarily broad. The study of mathematics, statistics, PPBE, doctrine, military history, international relations, leadership, management, theories of innovation, etc., are all important. In this case, though, the question is about the central and defining history of our communal story, our mythology.

What else should we read?

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