The Primitive Pete

I don’t have the greatest recollection of my days in middle school but there is one thing that stands out in my mind, Industrial Art’s class. I don’t remember my instructors but I remember it was my first experience bending metal. We fabricated ash trays which we proudly brought home and presented to our parents. Aside from the interesting social commentary it was the first time I had actually produced a useful product with my hands. My dad, however was not too interested in my profession in the ash tray fabrication business. I remember him telling me on numerous occasions to get into a business where I could use my head... where I could think and get paid at the same time.

There is one more thing I remember.  I was introduced to a character who has lived with me ever since. His name was Primitive Pete. Primitive Pete had a staring role in an educational film produced in collaboration between General Motors and Walt Disney Productions known as the ABC’s of Hand Tools. A quick search on the Internet and you can view some of what remains of the Primitive Pete material. Pete was an interesting character; he of course was a caveman intent on using all the available hand tools he could find, in the wrong way. Using a screwdriver as a crowbar for instance and always, always using a hammer for just about every application. Now my memory of Pete is most likely flawed and having found the material on the Internet I intentionally did not go back and change my fond perception of him after 30 years – so please forgive me if there are some inaccuracies as I report him to you.

The important part of this topic is that there is a right way and a wrong way to use a tool. And there are certainly many tools available to the professional analyst. Tools, models, spreadsheets, simulations, programs, algorithms, heuristics, hierarchies, etc. all must be used correctly in order to have a remote chance of doing the job correctly. Unlike Primitive Pete however, if you use the wrong hand tool you will do a lousy job and even worse someone could loose an eye. For us, the use of a wrong tool will probably go unnoticed by most, and in the main no one will get hurt or killed in the process of doing the analysis. The end result will be the same, however, a bad job.

The bad job will manifest itself at some later time following the equally bad decision that could be made as a consequence of the influence. It’s certainly not inconceivable that someone could get hurt or die as a result of a bad decision – although this essay should not be so bleak as too suggest that product safety or sound engineering principles in the fabrication of a product wouldn’t be assumed – the other guys always to their job correctly. So we are professionals in are trade at the office, not shade tree mechanics or Norm Abram’s carpenter want-a-bees as we might be at home. Professional means we know what we are doing and we will do the job correctly with the right tools at our disposal.

So why do we fail? Typically it is because we use the tools that are in our toolbox just like Primitive Pete. If the tool is in there we will probably find a use for it. It saves us a trip to the hardware store. Also, our tools tend to be very expensive software applications – and it is difficult to retool the factory without a major investment. Another reason is training – we know how to use the tool that’s in the box – if there is another one, we may not know about it or may not know how to use it. In addition, even if the tool in the box is the correct tool for the application, very frequently we don’t use it correctly or we don’t bother to sharpen it, to draw yet another analogy with hand tools.

I’m fairly certain that an unsharpened tool is about the most dangerous one of them all. That’s the wood chisel that when sharpened will carve wood like soft clay but when dull you will invariably drive deep into the palm of your hand. So here are a few examples from our profession. Using a linear program to optimize a non-linear behavior. Using old data or data that has been prepared by another group that is not fully reviewed and understood in the context of your analysis. Adding too much complexity to a spreadsheet thereby loosing either the cause/effect traceability or fixating on a portion of the problem that is not the main concern. Or conversely, over simplifying a problem that requires more detail.

The list goes on and some of the right ways to approach problems will be addressed in further installments of this blog...please stay tuned.

Lying with Statistics...and PowerPoint

It is well known and obvious to most of us in our profession that the phrase "lying with statistics" does not mean to be intentionally misleading. In fact, knowledge of the ease at which someone can mislead with the manipulation of numbers is common enough to prompt at least a cursory review of most analysis products to head off the inadvertent case of manipulation that could be construed as intentional deception. That is of course a cover your butt response to head off any low hanging criticism. But it is an important one. It is not the altruistic goal we seek of conveying only the truth. Nevertheless, the early discovery of that which may be misleading does have a certain first order effectiveness. It helps by eliminating early distractions as we should always strive for our products to be clear and as absent of controversy as possible.

This doesn’t correct the problem, however, if the result being reported is, itself, incorrect because the analysis behind it was faulty. Still yet we must be reminded that it is extremely important in our search for the truth that we understand how it is very easy to lie with statistics and that we must always be on guard to keep deceptive or misleading results completely out of our activities. Further, we must avoid the unintentional pitfalls of the of graphical products such as PowerPoint that obscure our message, change our message, or become the message...because they will.

For today this essay is not about the mechanics of lying with statistics, the well known book, “How to Lie with Statistics” by Darell Huff covers this topic quite well. On the issue of Power Point, the books and publications about graphical presentations by Edward Tufte, such as “The Graphical Display of Quantitative Information”, pretty much cover the water front on that topic as well. Since in both cases, graphical presentation of statistics and PowerPoint are primary tools in our tool kit and will remain at our immediate disposal for sometime to come, what more can be done to extract truth?

The best way to avoid the pitfalls is to keep your perspective that you are the analyst. Tools and presentation products do not have the brains – you do. Long before you commit a number to a spreadsheet you should know exactly what trend you are trying to show or display. If you find yourself manipulating the data in the spreadsheet because you are looking for meaning in the data, you probably are beginning to walk on thin ice and should be wary. If the trend doesn’t just jump right off the page it’s possible that it’s not really there. This should be your first signal to start questioning what came before the spreadsheet, not what’s in the spreadsheet.

With regard to briefing slides, here again, you should have a pretty good picture in your mind with regard to the story you want to tell. If you let the story emerge while constrained by the software application, you are probably letting something creep into your message that you didn’t intend. When Marshall McLuhan said, "The Medium is the Message", he was serious about the underlying facts and content not being the message. The message is contained in the medium. Over and over again we find this to be the case. A well presented diagram of the facts trumps the facts in most cases. What this means if if you present a beautiful depiction of the relationship between two sets of data, it is the picture of this relationship that will be remembered in the mind of the decision maker. You better hope it was a correct relationship and not a misleading relationship. Time and time again we see presentations that show a wide gap between two alternatives. If the scale was changed, and the observer is not aware of the change in scale, they come away with a vision of separation that may or may not actually exist...the medium became the message. And the message was not necessarily true.

The best way to combat this is to decide on the truthfulness of your message first. This means do the thinking first and then use the tools at your disposal, not visa versa. In this way, the truth, as you will learn to discover, will not be obscured, influenced, or manipulated –either intentionally or unintentionally, by the external limitations some of which you were not even aware. Then your final product will be clear and logical and stand-up to the first wave of PowerPoint critics who enter the room...and those who leave the room will not be deceived.

Essence of "Decision Points"

Since I read the book I thought it was appropriate to post my Amazon Review here. A book called "Decision Points" has got to have a connection to truth in analysis. So here you go.

"Decision Points", by George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States, presents history with somewhat of a conundrum. On the one hand it is written by the 43rd President of the United States and should be required reading by all. At least anyone alive during the first decade of 21st century who has ever wondered about the actions the United States took in the wake of the terror attacks on 9/11 and how the most important leader in the free world made the necessary decisions to keep us safe. On the other hand, the book is not a biography or a complete memoir in the normal sense. President Bush chooses instead to provide a personal narrative behind several major decisions he made during his two terms in office. He does this by highlighting the top level issues he considered. His approach works because his writing style is easy to understand. His approach does not work because his account lacks sufficient detail to study his actions in depth. It is impossible to independently determine whether his decisions were correctly formed based on the information he had available. His narrative therefore becomes a simple apologetic for his decisions. Along the way he takes full credit, perhaps too much credit, for the good things that happened and responsibility, perhaps not enough responsibility, for the things that didn't go as well.

Whole books have and will be written to address various aspects of the past ten years and the decisions that were made. Topics such as the intelligence surrounding the presence of WMD in Iraq, taking down the Taliban in Afghanistan, democracy building, stem cell research, efforts to eradicate Aids and Malaria in Africa, the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, and the financial crisis of our country. Thirty pages from the President on each of these topics provide a necessary view from the top but in no way provides the complete picture. Some context is formed but then it's on to the next topic. This is not a study on the complexity of Presidential decision making ala "Essence of Decision" on the Cuban Missile Crisis by Allison and Zelikow although given the gravity of many of this decades decisions, along with the accompanying loss of life and limb, perhaps it should be. Nevertheless it is a useful book.

Regardless of your opinion of George W. Bush a portrait of how our former President's mind works is clearly painted. Supporters of his policies will like his reductionist approach to the complexities of his office. Critics will yell out loud with almost every turn of the page. Since political awareness peeked in this country during his Presidency all will benefit from understanding what the President was thinking at the same time when we were all scared and confused and wondering what was going on in the mind of the man at the top. Now we know. Good or bad, right or wrong, generations will now have access to these thoughts. I'm glad I read this book.

Also, make sure you visit my actual review here and give it a "Helpful" vote.

Jim's Review of "Decision Points" on Amazon